May 2024 Highwaymen Auction and Market Review

The Highwaymen market started to show some headwinds this month. While there are NOT any real signs of market declines (it is down approximately 2%), there is some turbulence with market weakness. Some may say it is attributed to the summer slowdown, but my records indicate that for at least the last 2 summers, we did not see much of that seasonality in pricing. One contributing factor may be that both auctions this month were larger in a meaningful way than recent previous auctions. So – the increased volume of paintings hitting the market at the start of summer with so many snowbirds now all gone, may be the largest factor in these results.

There were 2 Highwaymen auctions in May:

As a quick summary of the “concern” about pricing this month, at Vero 26% of the paintings did not hit their low estimate, and at Manor the number surged to 43% of the paintings not reaching their target. This compared to the previous auctions of 4% and 28% respectively.

NOTE: to reiterate the manner of pricing in this blog, especially for new readers:

• All auction results listed here are hammer prices and do not include any fee’s
• “Target prices” refer to the low estimate – not a midpoint between low and high
• All results refer to only the original 26 Highwaymen. Sales of paintings by Backus, and other legacy and Florida artists are not included in these results.

A quick overview of the activity this month …..

The Vero Beach Auction was small, but many of the offerings were excellent. The top offering was a Mary Ann Carroll, targeted at $5,000, and soared with a hammer at $10,500.
Manor Auctions had a sale with strong results. The 103 lots brought a total of $300,176, as compared with target prices totaling $277,300 ! So – a strong overall result despite having an unusually high 5 paintings that passed, and 43% of the paintings not reaching their target. Clearly – it takes some strong sales to overcome the weak results of 43% of the paintings offered, and still achieve a sales result 8% over the total target prices.

As I wrote last month…

“ I expect that as we move into the May auctions, crowds will continue to decrease as winter residents / snow birds return home, but I predict what will likely be a month with many record setting prices. I have already previewed the sales at Manor and Vero Beach for May, and the quality of the paintings being offered are of exceptional quality in both auctions. Don’t miss either of them ! “

This has largely been the case. When I previewed the sales last month, I was not aware of the estimates and target prices. I believe the estimates were consistent with the estimates of previous auctions, and these estimates are now becoming the norm. Back in January I predicted a strong rise in estimates, which took place and was noticeable. Now those higher estimates seem to be the new norm – even as we see an increasing number of paintings not reaching the target.

The sales statistics for May can be summarized as follows:

What are we seeing?The May auctions have grown in size.  Perhaps more collectors wanted to get their paintings sold before the summer fully arrived.  Vero Beach Auction seemed to have relatively better performance, but the auction was at the beginning of May as compared with Manor at the end of May.   Vero Beach also, in my opinion, had noticeably more conservative estimates.  This makes it more likely to have sales exceed the targets, as we see in the sales statistics above.

Manor may have also been affected by the decision to hold their auction during Memorial Day weekend. There was a noticeably smaller crowd in the auction room, and this must have clearly had an impact on results, although there was also strong on-line bidding, so many who didn’t attend may have been bidding from home or elsewhere during the holiday.

It is worth pointing out though that two philosophies exist in the auction market in this regard. Some people believe high estimates bring higher prices because bidders often feel more comfortable bidding higher. On the other hand, there are those who believe lower estimates bring much more interest in the offerings, and as a result, the greater level of interest and larger number of initial bidders, drives higher prices!

After looking at the numbers in May, I think we can conclude that target estimates have certainly moved up and have stabilized at these higher levels. Prices have also moved up, but not necessarily as fast as the estimates. If the last two summers are an indication of seasonal trends, we will see a flattening of prices this summer (not a decline), and then a growth period once again starting in September.

I like to look at 3 pricing metrics to see the performance of an auction:

• How many paintings (and the percentage) did not reach their target price
• How many paintings hammered at 50% higher than the target price
• How many paintings hammered at 100% higher than the target price.

I also always look at the percentage of paintings that reach or exceed their targets, as well as the number of paintings that hammered at 50% over the target, and the number of paintings that hammer at double or more than the target price. These percentages are down since December and January, when we were seeing lower target prices.

Percentage selling at or above target

Percentage of paintings selling at 50% over the target prices

Percentage of paintings selling at 100% more than target prices

In the last two months I pointed to 3 artists who I indicated were useful as key barometers of the market:

• Harold Newton
• Sam Newton
• Willie Daniels

Why these 3 ?

• Harold Newton is widely considered the highest priced artist (other than anomalies such as Moran where pricing is based on rarity). He has had strong demand, steady growth in prices, and his prices reflect the strength of the Highwaymen market.
• Sam Newton is widely considered an excellent artist, also has generally strong demand, but always has significant numbers of paintings being offered. In most auctions, the number of Sam Newton paintings is usually the highest among all of the artists. In the last 6-8 months, there has been a general decline in prices, due to the increasing number of paintings being offered.
• Willie Daniels is a bit of an enigma. He is widely considered to be an excellent artist, was one of the original Highwaymen, has an excellent reputation, but is at the low end of the market, generally bringing relatively low prices. In the last 6-8 months prices have shown a slight decline due to the high quantity of paintings being offered.

Having stated the above, in the last 3 months the trend for these artists has shifted.

Harold Newton had an interesting month in May. In the smaller Vero Beach auction there were 6 paintings offered with very moderate target prices ranging from $3-6,000. All performed well, and exceeded their target prices. With the recent rise in target prices elsewhere, it was surprising to see paintings by Harold Newton estimated at $3,000, 3,500, and 4,000, so it was not surprising to see them perform well. At Manor there were only 2 Harold Newton paintings offered, both targeted at 6,000. Neither reached the target, and hammered at $5,600 and 5,800 – less than the low estimates. Without comparing quality of the paintings (all Harold paintings range from good to excellent), it would seem that pushing the target estimates, does not result in higher sales prices

Sam Newton had what may be a record offering of 16 paintings at Manor, and 10 paintings offered at Vero Beach (16% of the lots at Manor and 21% of the lots at Vero).

Estimates were all modest at $2,000-$4,000 at Vero beach, and $1,000-$5,000 at Manor. Nonetheless, 3 paintings did not reach their targets at Manor, and 2 did not reach it at Vero. Two paintings at Vero hammered at $1,000 and $1,600. I cant remember the last time I saw a Sam Newton painting hammer below $2,000. The lowest priced painting at Manor hammered at $2,000.
The Sam Newton market seems to continue its up and down trend, with the latest month showing a softening once again. As I have mentioned previously, it is not about the quality of paintings, or the market in general. I believe it is a function of the steady high volume of paintings coming into the market, and the ability of the market to absorb 25+ Sam Newton paintings every month at auction.

Willie Daniels: Last month I wrote… “ Willie Daniels has also come back, even more robustly than Sam Newton. ” Unfortunately, that seems to have reversed itself again in this slower month.
Manor had 8 paintings offered, with targets ranging at a modest $1,000-$3,000, of which 4 did not reach their targets. Vero had only 2 paintings on offer, with targets of $2,000 and $2,500. In the case of Vero, one of the two, did not reach its target.
As I started by saying, Willie is a bit of an enigma. He is a quality artist, but only his very best paintings bring high prices. His average paintings are stuck in the trenches with the lowest priced Highwaymen artists. That has not changed this month.

AUCTION HIGHLIGHTS:
A few words about some of the paintings that drew strong attention and results this month.

Vero Beach Auction -The highly unusual Mary Ann Carroll was the top painting of the sale, hammering at $$10,500 against a target price of $5,000. It should also be noted that this painting was offered in the unusual “Junkyard Dog Auction” in February, and did not sell at that time. It seems to prove the point that experienced Highwaymen auction houses will produce better results for consigners:

Mary Ann Carroll   $10,500

Bass Fish   24×36 Oil on Canvas

The most interesting sales at Vero were the two Chico Wheeler paintings, which both soared above their estimates. I have repeatedly indicated in previous blogs that Chico Wheeler has been one of the fastest rising artists with hammer prices consistently demonstrating strong results. These two paintings were clear examples. Lot No.5 “Cloudy Islands” had a target price of $1,000, and lot No.23 “Island Poinciana” had a target of $800. Of note… this is a stronger price performance than we have been seeing for Willie Daniels

Chico Wheeler   $4,000

Cloudy Islands 16×19 Oil on Masonite

Chico Wheeler   $3,000

Island Poinciana   11×14 Oil on Masonite

Also of note in the Vero auction was a beautiful and rare early Carnell Smith on upson board. These attributes drove the hammer price quickly to $5,500 from a target of $2,500. Collectors and dealers recognize the opportunities when provided a rare painting to acquire, as opposed to just another commodity Sam Newton or Willie Daniels.

Carnell Smith   $5,500

Sunset Pines   24×36 Oil on Upson Board

Manor Auctions – This auction was labeled by the auction house as “Manor May Madness”. However, the crowd in the auction room was noticeably thin, likely due to the Memorial Day holiday weekend. This lead many in the room during the preview hour to speculate that there would be some good buys, as there were few in attendance for an exceptionally large offering of paintings. It didn’t quite work out that way …
The auction did start out relatively slowly. But in an unexplained phenomenon, the bidding seemed to strengthen as the auction proceeded – with a large number of bids coming from the internet platforms. So it seemed that many people stayed away due to the holiday, but if those traditional auction goers had a painting they wanted, they found the time to bid online from wherever they were.

Let me start with the top lot of the Manor sale – the Charles Walker. Like Moran, Walker’s paintings are priced largely on rarity. This was a supersized painting by Walker, and for those interested in his work – a prime example. Nonetheless, it hammered for what can only be called a disappointing $16,500 against a target price of $20,000.

Charles Walker $16,500

Eagle Glory   36×48 Oil on Canvas

Of greater interest in the sale were the strong results for the nice selection of 7 Mary Ann Carroll paintings (6 lots, as 2 paintings were sold as a pair). The 2 paintings with poinciana’s soared to hammer prices of $11,500 and $9,800 – well above targets of $7,000 and $5,000. Most people I spoke with thought the second painting was the better painting, and it reached almost the same hammer price, despite being half the size.

Since the beginning of 2024, Mary Ann’s prices have shown strong and steady growth once again, after some softening in 2023. All of the Mary Ann painting’s sold well, including a strong price for a pair of 12×24 paintings bringing a hammer of $7,000. All sold above targets, except for one painting which seemed to be an unexplained bargain at a hammer of $4,000.

Mary Ann Carroll   $10,500

Poinciana Gem #1   24×36 Oil on Upson Board

Mary Ann Carroll $9,800

Poinciana Gem #2   24×18 Oil on Canvas

Alfred Hair paintings offered were all over the map – as usual. A very nice painting with a target of $10,000, hammered at $10,000. A mid-sized ocean scene targeted at $3,000 only reached a hammer price of $2,800. There is no artist whose prices are more dependent on quality that Alfred Hair. His top paintings do exceptionally well. His average to poor paintings often have trouble finding buyers.

Alfred Hair   $10,000

Masterpiece Wetland 24×36 Oil on Upson

Alfred Hair   $2,800

Surf’s Up   18×24 Oil on Upson Board

Livingston Roberts was well represented in this sale with an unusually large selection of 7 paintings. Every one was of very high quality. Two exceptional paintings in particular hammered at among the top prices in the auction at $7,000 and $8,000 respectively. The first sold at exactly its target of $7,000. The second at $8,000, soared above a strangely low target of $3,000. This was a very nice, jumbo sized, early work on Upson – so I am personally mystified that a target price of $3,000 was assigned to it.

Livingston Roberts   $7,000

Finest Known   30×40 Oil on Canvas

Livingston Roberts   $8,000

Bayou Scene   30×48 Oil on Upson Board

As a footnote to the above “Finest Known” … the catalogue states: “ Crafted in brush and palette knife. An outstanding commission work by Roberts. Masterpiece quality with only a single contender in its size and quality range having come to market in 20 years of public auction records. A museum worthy example.
In full disclosure, I was the buyer of this painting.

Two other paintings of note in the Manor auction… The first a George Buckner, who has clearly had increasing demand and prices in the last year. This was a particularly unattractive example, as are many of Buckners early examples. It was explained that this painting was signed George Buckner Jr. Apparently, the use of the “Jr.” in his signature is unusual and was only used for about his first 10 paintings. OK – so it dates the painting as one of the artists first – but it is still not a good painting. It is not clear to me why the painting hammered at $8,200 against a target of $2,500.

Second – a very attractive Sam Newton from 1992, a prime period for the artist. While only a mid-sized painting, this was a full pallet knife, heavily worked landscape of the St. Johns river. With beautiful peach clouds, this was one of the most attractive paintings in the auction. At only 18×24 inches, it soared to $8,800, more than doubling its target of $4,000.

George Buckner   $8,200

Royal Poinciana 18×24 Oil on Upson Board

Sam Newton   $8,800

Peach Masterpiece 18×24 Oil on Canvas Bd

I always like to ask, were there any bargains at this sale? That is becoming less and less frequent with the relentless rising of prices. However, there are always a few bargains in every sale that seem to slip by the bidders ! I highlight 2 examples here:

The first is a Hezekiah Baker, early painting on Upson that hammered at less than $2,000 – an unheard of price for a full sized Baker.

The second was a Lem Newton that was a bargain that no one took advantage of and really slipped through the cracks. A 30×40 jumbo painting on canvas of the Delks hunting lodge in the Everglades, with a target of $5,000, it passed at $4,000 and went unsold.

Hezekiah Baker   $1,800

Skiff At Rest 24×36 Oil on Upson Board

Lem Newton   Passed

Delks Everglade 30×40 Oil on Canvas

In Conclusion !

The May auctions, and market in general, seemed to confirm the typical plateau or slowdown that takes place annually during the summer. We did not witness decreasing prices – but clearly prices were not increasing either. Results for many of the artists were mixed, although there were exceptions with the very strong prices for Mary Ann Carroll and Chico Wheeler.

As many of you may have seen in this facebook group, I have recently updated my website (www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com) with auction prices now through the end of May 2024. They confirm the steady increase in prices that I have been reporting in these blogs during the last several months.
Note: The website link above in blue cannot be used in the pdf document. Please copy the address if you would like to access the website.

April 2024

May 2024

The system also tracks what I refer to as the HiCo (Highwaymen Collector) Price Index, since I started compiling data at the beginning of 2018. Using the averages for 2018 sales, the index stood at 306.57 at the end of this first quarter – meaning Highwaymen prices have risen, on average, 307%, since 2018.

With the inclusion of auction results through the end of May, the Hico index has declined to 298.93, representing a decline in the overall market by approximately 2% – a statistically insignificant amount, but a confirmation of the recent softening of the market.

Next Month ! ………

The preview is currently available on Live Auctioneers.

The preview is expected to be available in the next 7-10 days.

Happy Hunting !

www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com
Buying and selling Highwaymen art of exceptional quality, unusual scenes, and rare paintings by the Buckners. Always available: select paintings published in books and catalogues.