The First & Original Monthly Highwaymen Blog

This month, these two auctions have sent a very clear message.  Bidding levels are not where they were a few months ago.  Auction activity (both the number and quality of paintings) is not where it was a few months ago.  Of course, some may say it is just a function of the traditionally slow summer season beginning. However, I believe there is a softening of the market that goes beyond “seasonality”.   

The Highwaymen market seems to be finally catching up with the economy, and the economic pressures that many people have been facing.  Consumer prices of everything are up, leaving less money for the “painting every month” approach of many collectors.  I am not suggesting that collectors are not buying – but buying has clearly slowed down.  The collectors who used to buy paintings every month are now buying a painting every 2 or 3 months.  It’s affecting the market.

At the same time, many collectors are now undertaking a serious review of their collections to determine if there are paintings they should sell to slim down what has become a “bloated” collection.  These collectors are not selling for economic reasons – they simply, and typically, don’t even have room to hang all their paintings.  They acquired too many paintings in the last 3-5 years, and now they are selling some.  

There are also many “owners” of Highwaymen paintings (not collectors) who have decided to sell their paintings because they simply need the cash.  These painting owners are often people who have had 1 or 2 paintings for many years – often acquiring them from parents or relatives who have passed on.  They have held on to the paintings often for sentimental reasons, but now they are selling.  I can say that as a dealer, the number of calls from these “owners” have increased dramatically in the last 6-8 months.  I’m sure the auction houses are also receiving these calls.

Finally, the tried and true fundamental economic theory holds steady.  When supply goes up, prices go down.  There is no doubt that the supply of paintings in the market has increased quite significantly in the last year.

Harold Newton has always been considered a barometer of the market.  When the market has gone through periods of strong growth, Harold Newton’s prices were always leading the way.  But now we are seeing Harold Newton hammer prices performing poorly relative to estimates and target prices.  This month, 2 of the 3 Harolds passed at Vero.  At Manor, 5 of the 6 Harolds did not reach the low estimate.  These are not random results.  The market is being impacted by all the factors I have discussed above.

This does not mean that all Highwaymen art and artists are affected the same way.  The fact is there are some Highwaymen artists whose prices are softening (a trend that actually started last Fall), while there are others who are strengthening.

Clearly, Harold Newton has seen a major softening.  That is not to say that a top 5% Harold will not sell for a significant price.  But the average paintings are suffering.  A year ago, you could not find a full size Harold for less than $5,000.   This month, 2 Harolds at Vero Beach (each full size at 24×32) did not receive an opening bid of $4,000.

Sam Newton has also been affected by the same factors, but unique to Sam. The market has been flooded with his paintings to an extent that it is creating downward pricing pressure.  (It’s that pesky old supply and demand theory that can’t be ignored).  Having 15 Sam Newton paintings in an auction with only 52 paintings (essentially 30% of the auction), does not help the market, and does not help the prices for Sam Newton paintings.

Other artists that have been exhibiting weaknesses include Willie Daniels and James Gibson (also too many paintings coming to market).

At the other end of the spectrum, artists with continued strength and demand include Robert Butler, George and Ellis Buckner, and to many collectors’ surprise, Rodney Demps.  Of course, several artists also retain strong pricing due to rarity, including Alfonso Moran, Charles Walker, and Willie Reagan.  These three artists are rarely seen in the auctions, and are not generally available through dealers.  Thus, their rarity continues to drive strong prices. (Once again… supply/demand).