June 2025 Auction and Market Review

It was a slow month with only one major auction taking place (Manor Auction, on June 21).  Aside from that, there have been no new major exhibitions taking place. In fact, the Mary Ann Carroll Retrospective Exhibition in Orlando City Hall will be coming down on June 23, following its very successful and highly attended 10-week run.

While the market continues to exhibit signs of slowing, you have to ask the question:

• Is the market slowing in general?
• Is the market slowing because we are heading into the traditional slower summer months?
• Or does the market appear to be slowing further because this month’s auction (the traditional way of measuring the market), largely had weak offerings, producing weak results?

Let’s start by examining the data from the Manor auction.

The auction had 55 Highwaymen paintings for sale.  18 of them (or 33%) did not reach their low target estimate.   This is about average for Manor auctions, although most people feel that the estimates at Manor have been coming down each month, which should produce more paintings reaching the target.

The total group of paintings had a total target estimates of $112,950.  The auction produced total hammer prices of $122,000, for an average price of $2,218 per painting.  Of course every month the paintings are different – but over time, the large number of paintings each month do average out and can point to trends.

This year the Manor sales have looked like the following during these past 6 months:

The numbers speak for themselves. A clear declining trend in total auction values.

The trend in auction average price per painting is as follows:

Of course, some may say these results do not tell an accurate story because each month the paintings are different.  March is traditionally the best month for sales, and each of the auction houses does an auction in March for that reason.  But statistically, when each month has more than 50 paintings, and sometimes has almost 80 paintings, the averages are not swung based upon a few of the paintings being better or worse in different months.

Let me also point out that I am only using Manor auction results because Manor provides a better indication of market trends due to its monthly auction policy.  During this 6 month period, the other auction houses each held only 2 or 3 auctions during the same 6-month period, so it is not possible to produce the same kind of trend line for the others.

I will review trends for all the auction houses in December, when I review their full year results.  I do expect that the trends of other auction houses will be shown as holding up better due to the fewer auctions they hold.  Their less saturation of the market tends to generate greater interest when they do hold auctions.  Clearly, that is the case with Rennick Auctions, holding only 3 auctions per year. All collectors enthusiastically look forward to their November sale as they have selectively been building up their sale inventory for 6 months.

Let’s take a look at the performance of some of the artists in the auction this month.

We can start with the artists who are the most common at auction, whether they are low priced like Al Black, or high priced like Harold Newton. 

This month, following Al Black’s passing, his prices have shot up and displayed strong results.  All 6 paintings offered hammered above their target price, with hammer prices ranging from $850-$1,700.  With buyer fee’s, that would put all the paintings over $1,000, and the top painting over $2,000.  This is a strong positive movement in sharp contrast to recent results.

The other more common artists did not fare as well, starting with Alfred Hair, whose 4 paintings were all auctioned immediately following Al Blacks.  All 4 paintings had a target price of $4,000, and all 4 paintings hammered for $3,300 each.  These hammer prices are consistent with previous sales for Hair paintings with these kinds of scenes – so it is not clear why the target estimates were all higher than they should be.

Simply stated, Harold Newton has seen his prices declining.  There is no way to sugar coat it.  Not every Highwaymen artist moves in lock step with the others.  We have seen Harold’s prices increase strongly in the last 2 years – faster than the other artists – and now we are seeing a correction.  As I have written every month for the last 4-5 months, performance has been lackluster.  None of the 3 paintings in this auction reached their target price estimate.  On the positive side, at least this month they all sold !  That has not always been the case in the last few months.

One of the clearest trends among artists has been the pricing for Sam Newton – and it has not been good. There has been an almost relentless push to sell too many Sam Newton paintings.  The term that keeps coming up among everyone I speak with, is the market is being “flooded” with average quality Sam Newton paintings – which is exactly what we have again seen in this auction.  There were 9 Sam Newton paintings offered, with 2 offered at a target of $1,500 and 6 offered with a target of $1,000.  A year ago, you would almost never see a Sam Newton painting offered with a target less than $2,500.  While 8 of the 9 paintings sold above their target price, hammer prices remained low, with an average price at $1,988.  I believe this must represent a new low for Sam Newton, with 9 paintings selling at an average below the $2,000 level.  Having said this, I would also stress that top quality paintings still do bring strong prices.  We have just not seen many of these top quality paintings lately at auction. Finally, among the more common artists, Willie Daniels had 3 paintings being offered. None hammered for more than $1,500.  Another clear weakness in the market.

So Where Are The Positives In The Market ?

The positive news in the market these days are typically related to artists that are not as common as the Sam Newtons and Willie Daniels of the group.  In this auction the three best performing paintings were by Charles Walker, Curtis Arnett, and Willie Reagan. All three of these artists are typically represented by 1, or no paintings, in the average Highwaymen auction.  They are quality artists and attract immediate attention when their paintings are offered for sale.

Charles Walker is the rarest among the three.  His paintings are rarely available.  The very nice painting in this auction – a mid-sized work, had a target price of $4,000, and hammered at $4,900 (almost 25% above the target).  The painting did not have any of the typical wildlife animals that Walker is known for.  If it had, the price would have even been higher.  The painting did have many dead trees in the landscape – usually an element that holds prices down!  But that didn’t seem to affect the price of this very nice painting.

Charles Walker; 20×40; Oil on Canvas

Curtis Arnett frequently has paintings offered at auction, but usually it is only a single painting, as in this auction.  I offered a small Curtis Arnett painting for sale in this Facebook group just this week.  It sold in less than 5 minutes.  There is also an Arnett being offered in the Florida Highwaymen Auction on July 5.  The painting today at Manor had a target price of $1,500 and hammered at $2,700 (80% above the target price). This painting had a beautiful poinciana – as did the painting I sold this week.  Even among Arnett paintings, those with poinciana’s always attract strong attention.

Curtis Arnett; 12×16; Oil on Masonite

The Willie Reagan (the final Highwaymen painting sold in the auction) was a beautiful poinciana ( a positive) – but a scene that clearly represented a Jamaica landscape (not Florida).  These Jamaica paintings by many of the Highwaymen sell well, but I believe not as well as if it were a Florida scene with a poinciana.  Nonetheless, the rarity of the artist, and the beautiful poinciana, produced a hammer price of $7,000 against a target price of $5,000 (40% above the target price).

Willie Reagan; 18×24; Oil on Upson

Conclusion:

Overall, this was a weak auction. Paintings offered were generally only of average quality, and the sale was dominated by artists that collectors already have too many paintings by.  The relentless surge of paintings by Sam Newton and Willie Daniels into the market does not help. The market would be better served by the auction houses better curating the paintings being offered.   Sotheby’s does not auction every painting they are offered to sell. They curate the auctions, and expect that paintings they don’t take will end up in antiques shops or bought directly by dealers.  

Harold Newton, the premier artist, has also been weak due to the quantity of paintings recently being sold. The general sentiment in the market among collectors I speak with, including many people I spoke with today, has not been positive about this auction.  Some of the typical quotes from people who wrote to me today include:

…..” The Highwaymen market took another xxxx today at Manor”

…..” The Hair’s and both Newtons were not good”

…..” Lots of not very good stuff sold for $1,000 plus”

I tried to include a positive quote to balance the views – but among the 30+ quotes I had to choose from, they were uniformly negative.

Summary:

The market has clearly moved on from quantity, to quality.  Collectors are still snapping up quality paintings at strong prices.  Average and below average paintings are showing weakness.

As many of our readers have seen in my recent blog on the Facebook market, the largest Highwaymen group on Facebook has been acquired by Manor Auctions.  I believe it is part of a strategy to expand their marketing, expand their sales channels, and control more of the message in the market, in the face of weakness in their auction market.  Frankly, it makes sense for Manor when looking at the trend in their business. I wish them success in the Facebook world. 

I expect the coming months to be slow.  However, highlights include:

….. JUNE 28 – The Mary Ann Carroll Retrospective moves from Orlando City Hall to This Is It Café & Gallery in West Palm Beach, for 2 weeks.  Opening reception, June 28 4-8pm with special presentation by Dr. Renee Mills, daughter of Mary Ann Carroll.  Streaming details of the presentation will be announced later this week.

…..JULY 5 – Florida Highwaymen Auctions, on-site at the Ft. Pierce Yacht Club,  1:00pm.  An auction with many high quality paintings. Preview the offerings at LiveAuctioneers.com. Like their auction at Magnolia Manor this past January …lunch of steak and lobster starts at noon !

Happy Hunting !

Mark Lerner

786-599-5816

www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com