March 2024 Highwaymen Auction Review

The running of the bulls is turning into a freight train !

There were 3 excellent Highwaymen auctions in March:

NOTE: to reiterate the use of pricing in this blog, especially for new readers:

• All auction results are hammer prices and do not include any fee’s
• “Target prices” refer to the low estimate – not a midpoint between low and high
• All results refer to only the original 26 Highwaymen. Sales of paintings by Backus, and other legacy and Florida artists are not included in these results.

As a quick overview of the activity this month …..
The Vero Beach Auction was small, but the offerings were outstanding, as indicated by the fact that 22 of the 23 paintings reached their target price. This is an almost unheard of percentage of positive results. It was small, but an extremely successful auction.

Manor Auctions had unprecedented results. The 75 paintings brought a total hammer price of
$400,000 ! (Actually $399,125). Prior to this auction, none of the traditional Highwaymen

auctions had achieved results in excess of $320,000, and the average in 2023 was closer to
$230,000 per auction. This result represents an enormous jump in values.

Rennick Auctions also had excellent results. Overheard at the Rennick preview … One man to his wife in a quiet but serious discussion. “I am not going to take out a second mortgage to buy more Highwaymen paintings”.

Clearly, In summary, prices are setting new highs, crowds at the auctions continue to grow, and interestingly, the quality of the paintings being offered is increasing in a significant manner. I am speculating, but I believe that as prices continue to increase, we are reaching a point that people who have had quality paintings for years or decades, are concluding that they will sell them now and take what they believe to be extraordinary profits. The high prices are drawing a large number of paintings into the market that would not have been sold at the price levels of perhaps only 2 years ago. In short, the unprecedented demand is actually producing higher quality paintings being offered in the market. Inventory is stronger than ever.

The sales statistics can be summarized as follows:

What are we seeing? The March auctions were smaller than January and February, but the results were higher. Last month I wrote in my blog:

The trends are undeniable. I suspect we will now be seeing target prices moving up. If we have the same trends in the big March auction month, I think we can conclude that the higher prices are here to stay.

Well – after looking at the numbers, I think we can conclude that target estimates have certainly moved up, (in the case of Manor they have moved up sharply) and prices have also moved up, but not necessarily as fast as the estimates.

Using Manor as an example, my tracking of the number of paintings that sold for their target price or above, the percentages are as follows:

I interpret this as follows… In each month for the last 3 months, the percentage of paintings exceeding the target prices was increasing from 52%, to 80%, to 86%. If target price estimates were stable (which they were), this would imply that prices were moving up rapidly.

In March, despite record setting prices at auction, the percentage of paintings reaching their target price level dropped to 69%. In other words, 31% of the paintings did not reach the target price. But hammer prices were HIGH, so therefore, the target prices must have increased by an amount greater than the hammer prices. Conclusion: Target estimates have taken a significant jump higher.

When looking at the strength of hammer prices, I always look at the percentage of paintings that reach or exceed their targets, as well as the number of paintings that hammered at 50% of the target, and the number of paintings that hammer at double or more than the target price.
I have updated the chart from last month with the March numbers.

The numbers at Manor show the following trends:

Again, the prices were at new highs, so these declining percentages of performance relative to targets reflect the fact that the target prices have jumped too high, too fast.

Let me also make a few comments also about 3 artists I regard as key barometers of the market:

Harold Newton

Sam Newton

Willie Daniels

Why these 3 ?

• Harold is widely considered the highest priced artist, has strong demand, and prices reflect the strength of the Highwaymen market.
• Sam Newton is widely considered an excellent artist, also has generally strong demand, but always has significant numbers of paintings being offered. In most auctions, the number of Sam Newton paintings is usually the highest among all of the artists. So the question one can ask is, is there enough demand in the market to support the prices for the quantity of Sam Newton paintings being sold.
• Willie Daniels is a bit of an enigma. He is widely considered to be an excellent artist, was one of the original Highwaymen, has an excellent reputation, but is at the low end of the market, generally bringing low prices. This is likely due again, to the high quantity of paintings being offered.

These three artists I believe provide a good insight to the strength of the market. Based upon my general analysis during the last 18 months, we have seen:

• Strong and steady growth for Harold Newton paintings, with exceptional demand for the highest quality paintings.
• A decline in prices and demand for Sam Newton paintings during the last 6 months, due to the increasing number of paintings being offered.
• Likewise, a decline in prices and demand (at a lower price point) for Willie Daniels paintings during the last 6 months, due to the quantity of paintings being offered.

Having stated the above, in the last 2 months the trend for these artists has shifted.

Harold Newton continues to bring strong prices. In the March Manor auction there was an unusually large offering of 9 paintings, but 6 failed to reach their target prices. The hammer prices were very strong with 5 paintings selling for $9,400 – $18,000 hammer prices. The fact that these strong prices fell below the targets again is an indication that target prices are too high. The market for Harold Newton paintings is actually stronger than ever from a price standpoint.

Sam Newton had 14 paintings on offer at Manor. Only one did not reach its target, and prices were solid with 9 of the 14 paintings hammering at more than $3,000. The market seems to be bringing Sam Newton back, and his prices have strengthened as compared to that last few months. This compares to January with 18 paintings offered, 6 not reaching their target, and some hammering for as little as $1,900, $2,000, and $2,100.
The quality of the paintings in both auctions I would say are comparable with the possible exception of 1 or 2 paintings. Conclusion: Sam Newton has definitely started to strengthen again.

Willie Daniels has also come back, even more robustly than Sam Newton. 5 paintings at Manor in March all exceeded their target, with the lowest priced was $2,300. As recently as January, it was common for Willie Daniels paintings to hammer at prices between $1,500-$2,000. Again, I regard all of these as typical, comparable Willie Daniels paintings. There is not a huge financial difference between the $1,500-$2,000 in January, and $2,000-$2,500 in March, but the change in demand driving every painting up by another 4-5 bids is noticeable. Notably, while Rennick

also had strong results for many Willie Daniels, the Rennick sale still did have two sub-$2,000 paintings sold in March.

The purpose of this commentary… Even the artists showing some sales weakness in the last year, now seem to be performing much more strongly. Likewise, even demand for Rodney Demps and Chico Wheeler – 2 artists at the lower price points of Highwaymen artists, seem to be showing stronger results. The Manor sale had a small (12×16) Chico Wheeler with a target estimate of $750, hammering at $2,100. This would not have happened last year.

A few words about some of the paintings that drew strong attention and results this month.

Vero Beach Auction – The first auction this month had 2 exceptionally beautiful paintings. The first by Mary Ann Carroll, and the other by Harold Newton.

Mary Ann Carroll – $11,500

Blue River 24 x 48 on Upson

Harold Newton – $10,000

Early Palette 24 x 20 on Canvas Bd

These paintings were exceptional, and sold for attractive prices given their quality.
Another painting by Ellis Buckner was one of the very well-priced paintings of this sale. It featured an unusual row of Mangroves, despite its title being “Moonlit Palms”.

Ellis Buckner Moonlit Palms 24 x 30 on Canvas $5,500

The next auction up was at Manor, with an extremely large crowd. It seems people are coming to the auctions earlier and earlier to preview the paintings. – an indication of growing interest. I got to Manor at 11:45am for the 1pm sale and the rooms were already crowded with interested parties. The next day I arrived at Rennick, also at 11:45am, and for the first time that early, there weren’t any parking spots available in front of the auction location.
(There was plenty of parking available in the public parking lots).

There were several paintings of note at the Manor auction.

Charles Walker – $21,000

Eagle 36 x 48 on Canvas

John Maynor – $14,500

Jumbo Poinciana 36 x 48 on Canvas

The Charles Walker painting, a strong and unusual subject of the Eagle and Fish, was offered at Vero Auction several months ago. Bidding then reached $19,000, but it was not sold due to a reserve of $20,000 on the painting. Now, in a more frothy market, the bidding reached $21,000 and was hammered as “sold”. The painting reached this high price level due to the rarity of Charles Walker paintings.

The John Maynor on the other hand was a truly gorgeous painting that reached its hammer of
$14,500, against a target price of $6,000. Maynor is not typically a high priced artist, but the combination of being a lush and beautiful painting, along with its unusual Jumbo status size of 3 x 4 feet, made this painting a standout and the price reflects its worth.

Most people have probably seen the following image of the Livingston Roberts painting sold at the auction. It had an interesting explanation at the sale, which took many people by surprise.

This is a painting that was offered around by a private dealer last Fall. I was offered the painting to purchase, but declined at the time because it had a large dead tree as the centerpiece of the painting. I found the painting to be a good painting, but unattractive to me. The painting appeared in the auction, with the tree painted out – clearly by a professional art restorer. It was not obvious to a viewer that there once was a tree in the center of the painting.

The coloration of these two photos is a bit different – likely because the two images may have been photographed in different light, at different times, and even possibly with 2 different cameras or phones.

Issues of ethics aside, it was announced to the room, and online, that the painting had been modified. Nonetheless, there was spirited bidding and the price quickly exceeded its target, selling at an unexpectedly strong price of $7,800.

Sylvestor Wells – $15,500

Chicadees 24 x 36 on Canvas

This was a highly unusual Sylvestor Wells painting, but that is in fact the usual situation for SW, as almost all of his paintings are highly unusual ! Wells was known for painting copies of postcards, which is why the subject matter is always unpredictable. This painting of 2 birds on a raspberry bush is unlike any other Highwaymen painting, yet still quickly soared above its target estimate of $4,000 to a hammer price of $15,500. This pattern seems to repeat itself regularly with unusual paintings by Sylvestor Wells !

Despite having 8 paintings in this sale hammering at more than $10,000 each (I can never remember such a situation previously), were there any bargains in this auction ?

Johnny Daniels

Apricot Sky 24 x 30 on Upson

This Johnny Daniels was an exceptionally beautiful painting hammering at $2,700. An early work on upson, with significant palette knife work, it was a standout in the lower priced group of paintings in the auction.

Moving on to the Rennick sale highlights, there were as usual, many.

As expected, the highest priced painting at the auction was the Alfonso Moran with a hammer price of $27,000. As everyone knows, Moran prices are based on rarity – not necessarily the quality of the painting.

Alfonso Moran $27,000

Poinciana by the Pond 24 x 36 on Upson

In the last 3 months there have been 3 Moran’s, hammering at $40,000, $40,000, and this one at $27,000. Clearly, exceptional results, but why was this painting hammered at a lower price? For starters – it was not as good as the other two. And supply… it is surprising to see three Moran’s in 3 months. Often, we might only see one a year ! As I indicated earlier in this blog, I believe the higher prices are drawing out more high valued paintings. It’s a perfect storm.

Apart from the Moran, the next highest priced painting at the auction was the Sam Newton poinciana hammering at $19,000. While a very nice painting, this was an extraordinary price, as there is not really a shortage of full size Sam Newton poinciana paintings. It was also surprising that a Sam Newton outperformed all of the high quality Harold Newton’s offered.

Sam Newton – $19,000

A Glorious Poinciana for the Ages ! 24 x 36 on Upson

The painting had a target price of $6,000. Bidding was relatively slow, as the price rose to about $12,000. It was then almost a painful process to watch the very slow and lengthy continued bidding, but Ron Rennick masterfully pulled one slow bid after another, until it finally halted at $19,000. Like the painting title, It was a price for the ages !

Clearly, the Highwaymen poinciana oeuvre continues to produce some stellar results relative to other typical Highwaymen scenes

My favorite painting of the Rennick auction was actually a James Gibson monochrome. I am not normally a fan of these monochromes, but this one was different. It was 2 x 4 feet, exceptionally detailed, one of the heaviest pallet knife paintings I have seen, and was in a striking bright green and orange color pallet. To top it off, it was in a rare, large Lincoln notched frame, which added an enormous presence to the painting. These monochromes typically sell for $2,500 – 3,500 tops, but this hammered at $4,500. While not expensive, I have not seen a monochrome reach this price level. The painting demanded that you look at it! I’m sorry I let it go !

James Gibson $4,500

St. Lucie River Sunset 24 x 48 on Upson (in rare Lincoln notched frame)
(Note: The colors in this photograph are not as bright as the painting was in real life. Rennick also does not provide photographs with frames on their website.)

A surprising offering in the auction was the sale of this beautiful Charles Walker painting. After Moran, Walker is the rarest artist to come to market, and this painting had a target price estimate of $2,000.

Charles Walker $8,000

Backcountry Marsh 24×30 on Masonite

Despite the hammer price of $8,000, this painting I still regard as a bargain. The Walker Eagle and Fish painting at Manor hammered at $21,000. Although this painting did not have any wildlife, as most Walker paintings do, I feel this is still an outstanding painting, and sold at an under market value price.

Livingston Roberts – $3,000

Feeding Time For The Birds 24 x 36 on Upson

An interesting painting in the Rennick sale was this Livingston Roberts painting with a large dead tree trunk in the foreground. It can be contrasted with the painting in the Manor auction which had the dead tree painted out. Roberts utilized these dead trees/trunks in many of his paintings as a metaphor for death in the cycle of life, as contrasted with life represented by the beautiful lush landscape.
Clearly, this element of Roberts’ paintings does not resonate with buyers/collectors. This painting with the prominent dead tree trunk hammered at $3,000 … 25% below its target of $4,000. On the other hand, the Roberts at Manor with the dead tree painted out had spirited bidding, exceeding its target price by more than 25%.

Mary Ann Carroll $3,750

Blue Moon-12 x 24 on Upson

Mary Ann Carroll’s prices have been on the rise again. They had softened a bit during 2023, but lately her prices have been moving up sharply. Mary Ann’s paintings vary in quality quite a bit, unlike some artists like Sam Newton whose work is consistently good. This painting was the only Mary Ann offered at the Rennick auction, and was not a particularly good example of her work, yet the demand pushed the price beyond expectations. The painting almost doubled its target price of
$2,000 to hammer at a price of $3,750. A high price for such a painting.

In Conclusion !

The March auctions continued to set a new benchmark for Highwaymen prices. I expect that we will be seeing continued growth during the coming few months, but not at the same rates we have witnessed since January. Further, I believe we will continue to see higher and higher quality paintings coming into the market as owners have reached an inflection point where they want to sell, and take what would be record profits.

Next Month ! ………

I believe next month will be “take a breather month”. April will have only 2 auctions, as well as my own participation at the West Palm Beach Antiques Festival.

The preview is available on Live Auctioneers.
29 Highwaymen paintings offered

The preview has just been listed on Live Auctioneers, and on the Manor website A large sale with 78 paintings being offered.
The sale includes an interesting group of 5 very nice Chico Wheelers.

It is not expected that there will be another Rennick auction until next November. Additionally:

For anyone interested in looking at some new-to-the-market exciting Highwaymen paintings, The Highwaymen Collectors (myself and John Biederwolf) will be exhibiting at the West Palm Beach Antiques Festival on April 4,5,6.

We have taken a larger booth than previously due to the quantity of new offerings. Details are: April 4 Fri. 12 noon – 5 pm / April 5 Sat. 9 am – 5 pm / April 6 Sun. 10 am – 4 pm
Located at the West Palm Beach Fair Grounds: 9067 Southern Blvd., West Palm Beach Hoping to see you there !!

Happy Hunting !

www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com
Buying and selling Highwaymen art of exceptional quality, unusual scenes, and rare paintings by the Buckners. Always available: select paintings published in books and catalogues.

Look for my report on artist pricing comparisons and growth (Quarter 1 2024 vs 2023) in the
next April blog. Which artist’s prices are growing the fastest. Results may surprise you.