September 2025 Highwaymen Market – “All Quiet on the Atlantic Coast”
September is typically the month when things start happening, following the lazy, hazy days of summer. When I worked on Wall Street, the day after Labor Day was always like someone shot the starting gun at an Olympic track event. Conversations at work immediately went from talking about vacations, to talking intensely about deals, revenue, and the start of the coming year budgets.
Not so in the Highwaymen world. Following a modest summer of activity, September continued the trend with two of the smallest Highwaymen auctions we have seen in a long while. The Manor auction consisted of 47 lots comprised largely of average quality “commodity” paintings. And the Vero Beach auction consisted of only 20 lots, with a bit better quality, but no standout paintings like the Manor H Newton poinciana.
However, I am expecting that this is the “quiet before the storm” moment, as the market does look to be perking up for October. This coming weekend, we will see on one day, (Saturday, Oct 4) a significant auction by Florida Highwaymen Auctions (live in Davie and on Live auctioneers), our first major sales event of the Fall season at This Is It Café & Highwaymen Gallery in West Palm Beach, and a sales event at Treasure Coast Collectibles in Vero Beach. Clearly, this upcoming auction at Florida Highwaymen Auctions soars in quality above any of the auctions of the last several months (other than the one-off Circle Auction in August). It seems like this weekend will be the true kickoff of the Fall season. The October Manor auction will also move up to 56 lots, although there will still be only 4 lots with target prices above $5,000 in the Manor auction.
Enough about October. Let’s review the sleepy September ! In general, the auctions were slow, quiet, and did not offer much to serious collectors. More and more, collectors are looking for superior quality, at a time that most of the auctions seem to be offering lower quality.
The statistics for the 2 auctions in September speak for themselves.
Manor Auctions Summary
47 Lots of which 2 Passed
Total Target Prices: $135,600
Total Hammer Prices: $145,100 (7% above target)
On-line viewers: Average about 125, plus in-room crowd (est.80)
12 paintings did not reach target (25%)
(Note: Without the single painting out of the 47 hammering at $37,000, the statistics would be quite different for the month)
Vero Beach Auction Summary
20 Lots of which 3 Passed
Total Target Prices: $47,800
Total Hammer Prices: $41,400 (13% below target)
On-line viewers: Average about 450
8 paintings did not reach target (40%)
Statistically, clearly Manor outperformed Vero Beach this month. This has not been the case most months, but this month the difference is clear.
One of the attributes leading to the success at Manor this month was the fact that target prices were clearly lower than at any time recently. It is well known in the world of the major auction firms (for example, Sothebys), that lower estimates bring higher prices. I have been saying for a year that the target prices at Manor have been wildly inflated. There has been a perverse view that high estimates will produce high prices.
They are listening to my advice ! Recently, each month the targets at Manor have been decreasing, and this past month they have finally reached a rational level. And the result … Hammer prices improved. I will say it again … Your welcome !
In fact, I heard from many people at the Manor auction that bidders in the room were very excited about the results, and were comparing the auction at Manor to the recent highly successful Circle auction. I followed both auctions in detail, and as the expression goes… I knew both of the auctions, and the Manor Auction was no Circle Auction. The statistics are dramatic:
Manor Auction
Total Targets: $135,600 … Total Hammer: $145,100
Percent Hammer Over Target: 7%
Circle Auction
Total Targets: $92,900 … Total Hammer: $271,450
Percent Hammer Over Target: 292%
The Circle Auction was defined by very low target prices, coupled with exceptional high quality. The numbers show the difference: Manor achieved a 7% excess over their estimates, while Circle achieved 292% over estimates. Manor is finally moving in the right direction, but their performance does not touch the performance of the Circle Auction. It was quality at Circle, and commodity at Manor.
Market Trends:
Prices have continued to soften across most of the Highwaymen market. It may not be obvious when target prices keep dropping and the paintings surpass the target prices. But the statistics bear this out when looking at the trends in hammer prices. I will be reporting a detailed pricing analysis for each artist next month, and how their performance compares to the year before. I believe the analysis will show that for most artists, prices have dropped. There will be some exceptions as I have been reporting, like Demps and Butler whose prices have increased, but the trends will be interesting (I have not yet done the full analysis).
What cannot be quantified easily, but which I am sure is occurring, is that the prices for top quality are increasing significantly, while prices for average and below average quality paintings are dropping.
The Months Best Paintings:
The top painting at the September Manor Auction
Harold Newton, Poinciana, 24×36 on upson, Hammer $37,000
The top painting at the September Vero Beach Auction
James Gibson, Poinciana and Palms, 24×48 on upson, Hammer $4,500
Don’t miss the big Disrupter events of October !! Always fun, always exciting, and always top quality, (not commodity) paintings being exhibited, and auctioned.
Florida Highwaymen Auctions on Oct 4, 1pm
This Is It Café & Highwaymen Gallery Sales Event on Oct 4, 4-8pm
Happy Hunting !
Mark Lerner
786-599-5816
https://www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com