2023 Highwaymen Pricing Summary

The Running of the Bulls has reached Vero Beach !

As members of the Highwaymen Collector Buy/Sell/Trade facebook group may know, I have also been developing a website with more information than is generally available in the facebook groups. My website is: www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com

I am working now with a new Beta version of the website which will not be uploaded to the web for another 2 weeks. The pricing database that I am using for this report will be uploaded, and available for anyone to freely use. It will require a no-charge registration on the website.

The website has a database of all publicly recorded Highwaymen paintings sold at auction since 2018. The version that is uploaded on the web now contains data from 2018-2022. The offline version that I am using for this blog includes all data through the end of 2023. The 2023 data will be uploaded in 2 weeks.

Unlike the auction review blogs that I publish which are based on “Hammer” prices before fees, the database in the website reflects actual sales prices of the paintings. In other words, if Rennick charges a 10% buyers fee, the hammer prices have been increased by 10% in this database to reflect the true cost of the painting. In the case of split buyers fees – such as those used by a firm like Manor (17% for those buying in person and by phone, 20% for those buying online), I have chosen to use and add the 17% fee across all paintings sold by Manor. It is impossible to know which fee to apply to which painting.

This database has been created based upon only “traditional” Highwaymen paintings. In other words, I have excluded all auction records of prints, giclee’s, and non-traditional.
artworks such as painted furniture. An example of non-traditional work excluded from the database would include the collection of painted violins recently sold by Vero Beach Auctions. They were nice pieces, interesting, and unique – but their pricing would possibly skew the average pricing of paintings, since they were not paintings.

While the database does not include any “quality” criteria or subjective criteria on paintings, there are enough records (currently 6,200 for the last 5 years), to make averages a good indicator of price. Of course some artists like Moran and Walker do not have many records and small data samples can give skewed results.

Graphic of Pricing Trends for ALL Highwaymen Paintings
(Source: www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com)

The database and website allow a “slicing” of the data based upon painting size, and whether the painting is on upson board, or some other surface. For example, if you wanted to know the average price of Harold Newton large paintings on upson, that can be searched in the database, by individual year. This allows for more detailed average prices, without the average being skewed by small and medium sized paintings. There are also metrics on how one artists pricing compares to the market as a whole, over the same period of time. The only way to really explain the database and system is to use it ! I encourage everyone to try it. Feedback will also help me to improve it.

Having explained all of this, the purpose of this blog is to summarize how different artists fared in 2023 compared to their pricing during the recent previous 2 years. Where is the market heading, and where are the individual artists heading?

Some conclusions for 2023 are as follows:

1. Overall Highwaymen market growth:
The overall market of all 26 artists had pricing grow by 42% from 2021 to 2023. Most of the growth took place in 2022, with a clear indication of price softening in 2023.

2. The top 6 artists with the greatest growth in value during the 2 year period were:

These are pretty staggering numbers. Each of these 6 artists had growth in their average prices of more than 100% from 2021 to 2023. Of course the Walker and Moran growth rates are based on very few sales. All it takes is 1 or 2 huge prices, (like the $40,000 Moran hammer at Manor this past December = $46,800 with buyers fee) and the growth rate explodes. Further, for some artists, they may have had exceptional growth in early “masterpiece” paintings, while the majority of their paintings have only grown at a more steady slow rate. This may also accelerate growth numbers for those artists. McLendon is a good example of this phenomena, with some very high prices for exceptional paintings, but more steady average prices of $3-5,000 for most paintings sold.

3. The 3 artists with the smallest growth – in fact a loss of value on average during the last 2 years were as follows:

These numbers may be a bit surprising, but a check of the database confirms these results. Looking behind the numbers in the case of Chico Wheeler, we can see a steady increase in the number of small paintings being sold, but we also see a decrease in the number of large paintings being offered. This disparity of fewer sales of what were the much higher priced paintings, along with increases in small lower priced paintings, produce the overall trend of declining average values. This can be further explored by looking at the details on the website where trends can be separated between large paintings and small paintings.

Likewise, we see the exact same pattern in the mix of Cornell Smith paintings, resulting in the decline of average values.

In the case of Willie Daniels, there has been an across-the-board decline in value in every category tracked (upson/non-upson, and small/medium/large sizes). This could be attributed to a growing quantity of paintings being offered at virtually every auction.

What does this all mean ?

We all know that everyone involved, or even just interested, in the Highwaymen field generally believes that the entire market has been steadily moving up in terms of interest and prices. It may be true that interest is increasing everywhere. However, the same is not actually true about prices, and each artist has different trends.

Clearly, all 26 Highwaymen artists have their own styles, and their own characteristics which drive different collectors. There are also widely different quantities of paintings available for each of the artists, and of course pricing is not consistent across each of the Highwaymen. Supply and demand economics work in the Highwaymen field. It is the reason prices for Willie Daniels paintings have shown a decline, and prices for Charles Walker have surged. For those collectors thinking about which artists are showing value growth, and which are showing less growth, this database is a useful source of information to look at to quantify the answers to questions about pricing trends.

Of course, in the end, purchasing a painting should be based upon whether you like or do not like the painting, and whether you want it hanging in your home. It’s also nice to know that at the same time the value is increasing. Everyone likes to pick winners, and understanding these pricing trends can help.

www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com
Buying and selling Highwaymen art of exceptional quality, unusual scenes, and rare paintings by the Buckners.