September 2024 Highwaymen Auction and Market Review
The Launch of the Fall Season
Following the slow summer, and the slow summer auctions, many collectors had expected that the September auctions were going to be kicking the Fall season into high gear. Well, it was not to be …
Before discussing the auction market this month, a few notes and reminders:
- All results refer to only the original 26 Highwaymen. Sales of paintings by Backus, and other legacy and Florida artists are not included in these results and analysis.
- All auction results listed here are hammer prices and do not include any impact of auction house fee’s
- “Target prices” refer to the low estimate provided by the auction house. They are not a midpoint between low and high estimates as some people have suggested.
The market this September has not been very different than the summer. While there were some better paintings coming into the market, certainly with high estimates, it seems that the enthusiasm on the part of collectors was still not quite there. Yes – there were a few paintings that stood out and brought good prices, but the majority of results for both auction houses this month was quite lackluster. Summing up the main activity, we had:
Vero Beach Auctions 48 lots of Highwaymen paintings
Manor Auctions 63 lots of Highwaymen paintings
To start with, while these were average sized sales, the total values of the paintings being auctioned (as defined as target prices, or the “low” estimate) were below average for both auction houses. Even more surprising was the fact that both of the auction houses did not reach total sales volume equal to the total target prices. Hammer price totals for both auctions were below the total targets for both !
I started statistically tracking the sales and performance of the auction houses in January 2023 (21 months of records), and the only time this has occurred for these 2 Auction houses was January 2023 for Vero Beach. This level of poor result has never previously occurred for Manor Auctions. Clearly, there has to be a message in these auction results.
| Lots | Total Target Value | Total Hammer Results | % Below Target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vero Beach Auctions | 48 | $105,600 | $89,900 | (15%) |
| Manor Auctions | 63 | $199,850 | $189,000 | (5%) |
There is no doubt that this is an unusual performance. It is a result of 2 obvious attributes of these auctions. First, an unusually large number of paintings were sold at levels below the target price, and second, more than an average number of paintings did not sell at all and passed.
| Number of Paintings Below Target | Percentage | Number of Paintings PASSED | Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vero Beach Auctions | 28 | 61% | 3 | 6% |
| Manor Auctions | 27 | 43% | 6 | 10% |
Vero Beach has not has a single painting PASS all year up until this auction, and this month had 3 paintings PASS. Manor only had 2 paintings PASS in total during the 3 slow months of summer (June, July, and August), contrasted with 6 in September.
Ordinarily, I would say there are only 2 reasons this could occur :
- The demand for Highwaymen paintings is slowing, or
- The estimates on the paintings were too high
Actually, my view is that there is a combination of these scenarios taking place. I do not think the estimates were unreasonable. However, many of the estimates at Manor on the higher priced paintings seemed high, with the highest priced painting in the Manor Auction passing – the $15,000 Harold Newton. The Charles Walker with a $10,000 target also passed. Likewise, the highest priced painting at Vero – the Alfred Hair with a $6,000 target, also passed.
So what I mean by a combination of the two factors is that yes – the economy has to be having an impact on the market overall, and further, the auction houses, particularly Manor, have not been adjusting estimates slightly downward to reflect the changes. Manor had 43% of its lots not reaching their target estimate. Last January and February, Manor’s numbers were 14% and 19% respectively. Such a shift can only mean the estimates are now too high.
Attendance:
Attendance is of course also a factor in the auction business. However, there was no shortage of attendees and viewers for these auctions. The online auction platforms provide a count during the auction of how many people are viewing the auction. Presumably, these people are mostly possible bidders.
While it is difficult to compare apples to apples, the Vero Beach Auction had on average 570 people viewing the auction on Live auctioneers during the Highwaymen sales. Manor Auctions averaged only 82 people on Live Auctioneers, but Manor also utilizes the Invaluable platform (155 people), and their own platform (unknown number). Further, Manor has bidders on-site during the live auction, but estimates from 2 participants who attended the auction on Saturday, estimated approximately 60-70 people in the auction room. Thus, Manor had about 307 auction viewers + those on the Manor site.
These viewership numbers are actually as high, if not higher, than what I have tracked during the last few months. I would conclude that a large number of collectors were actively following the auctions hoping to get into the market again. However, the large audience did not vote with their wallets, and did not purchase paintings.
Technical Problems at Manor Auctions:
There were also clearly technical problems during the Manor auction this month, although I do not know the specific nature of the problems. This could have affected the performance of the auction, as problems also frustrates customers.
When trying to log into the Live auctioneers page for the Manor auction, there was a red warning message that said there were “technical problems”. It did not say where the technical problems were, but the Vero Beach Auction on Live auctioneers was running smoothly at the same time. The Manor auction started about half an hour late, and they could have lost many bidders due to this delay.
Once the auction was underway, there seemed to be continued problems, with many comments like these posted on facebook…..
People were bidding in the room, and online. No “fair warnings” just ended.
Tell me about it, yet held some paintings with 12 -18 fair warnings!
I have been shut out a few times with online bidding
Apparently, for some paintings the bidding simply ended abruptly, while others had extensive waits with “fair warnings” before hammering the painting. Presumably, Manor will get these problems addressed before the next auction, as this could have easily contributed to the problem creating the below average performance this month.
Moving on to some of the paintings sold this month ! The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly !
As I indicated in my pre-auction blog, I felt the best 2 paintings this month were the mid-sized Alfred Hair and, and the river scene by Livingston Roberts.
Hair (top), and Roberts (bottom)
My indications on these two paintings were correct. Both of these paintings exceeded expectations, in an auction that had 61% of the paintings not reaching their target value. When the Hair came up for bidding first, the on-line bidding price was rolling as fast as the numbers on a pinball machine. At one point they were increasing at a rate so fast, you could not read them.
The Hair (24×18 on upson) ended up hammering for $8,000 – almost $10,000 with buyers fee for a mid-sized Hair. At the same time, two much larger Hair paintings also at Vero, fared not nearly as well.
The Livingston Roberts, an unusually nice early river scene (24×36 on upson) had a target price of $3,500 and hammered at $4,500. It was one of the few paintings that sold near its high estimate.
This Alfred hair (lot 15A at Vero), a 24×36 on upson with a target of $4,000, sold below target at $3,500.
Finally, this Alfred Hair, also at Vero (lot 30A), was even larger at 24 x 48 on upson. It had a target price of $6,000, and did not even receive an opening bid of $5,000, resulting in a PASS.
The message: more than ever, its all about quality, quality, and quality. The unusually small sized Alfred Hair exploded with interest, with the other much larger Hair paintings generated little interest. For anyone who knows Hair paintings well, the quality difference is clearly obvious.
Another clear example of quality, and estimates, as it relates to price results can be found in 2 Harold Newton paintings sold this month:
Harold Newton’s Stormy Beach at Vero, 24×36 on Masonite. Target $5,000. Hammer $6,000
This painting was a beautiful example of an ocean scene by H Newton. Beautiful waves. An interesting shoreline with dune grasses, and an open sky with the sun trying to peek through. It had a very reasonable estimate starting at $5,000. That would mean the opening bid was probably $4,000. This was sure to garner a lot of interest at the opening price. It sold well.
Contrast the above with the following painting at Manor:
Harold Newton’s Summerlin Dock 24×30 on Masonite. Target $15,000. Hammer PASSED
This painting is only a touch smaller, also on masonite, but has a target price of 3X the price of the ocean scene above. Sure, it’s a different scene. But they are both beautifully painted, and the ocean scene above, in my opinion, is a more exciting painting.
So it comes down to price and quality. Perhaps an expert in Harold Newton paintings might say this is a more important scene, and a more important painting. Even if that is true, will most collectors pay $15,000 for this when they could have the other for $5,000. I believe the answer is NO, which is validated by the fact that this painting PASSED and the other sold above its target.
For me – the top painting at Manor was the late Gibson, Hyacinth Paradise
This Gibson painting, 24×36 on canvas, is one of his better later, colorful works on canvas. The purple hyacinths drive the painting to a level not seen in his great paintings of this period. The painting had a target price of $8,000 and soared to hammer at $11,500. It was the second highest priced painting at Manor, following the Harold Newton Dragon Rock ocean scene which hammered at $15,500.
H. Newton’s Dragon Rock, 24×48 on upson. Target $10,000 Hammer $15,500
For me, this was a dark painting, of a scene in Jamaica, which is typically of less interest to most collectors than scenes in Florida. However, the painting was in the personal collection of James Gibson (a positive) , and also depicts a location where Backus had a home (another positive ?) For at least 2 collectors who bid up the price of this painting to the hammer of $15,500 – these attributes outweighed the fact that the painting was a dark night scene of a Jamaica location. As the saying goes, all it takes is 2 interested people to drive the price of a painting !
Bargains:
With so many paintings not reaching their target price, there were obviously some good buys and buying opportunities at these 2 auctions ! Just because the market seems to be in a slow period does not mean it is not the time to acquire a Highwaymen painting. This is the time to acquire paintings that will look very cheap a year from now !
This is a 24×20 Sylvestor Wells on board, of a backwoods river scene. Wells is a rare artist, not easy to find. With a target of $2,000 this painting hammered at $1,100. I do not think you will see another Wells for $1,100 anytime soon !
Also at Vero Beach auction were these 2 Sam Newton paintings, that could be hung as a pair or hung as 2 individual paintings. Both 24 x 12 on Masonite, they were in matching original Highwaymen frames and had a target price of $2,000 each.
River Sunset Palm
Backwoods Sunset
These two paintings sold for hammer prices of $1,300 (River Sunset) and $1,600 (Backwoods Sunset). I don’t recall the last time I have seen a Sam Newton painting sell at such low levels. I believe at least 2+ years ago. These were perhaps the best priced paintings of the day.
There were also a couple of great bargains at Manor, including the George Buckner, 24×48 on canvas entitled Twilight. On one hand, it’s a dark painting, and dark paintings never sell for as much as daylight paintings – but this one is particularly well done and at $3,100 hammer against a Target of $4,000, it was a great buy.
Interestingly, the policy at Manor is that the reserve is 80% of the target price. Thus, a painting like this with a target of $4,000 would normally have a reserve, or lowest acceptable bid of $3,200. Usually, paintings that do not reach a bid of 80% of the target price will PASS. So it’s unclear to me how some paintings actually sell at less than the reserve, as is the case with this painting. Of course a seller consigning a painting may say “sell it at any price”, but I don’t think that is the general practice in the Highwaymen market.
George Buckner 24×48 oil on canvas Target $4,000 Hammer $3,100
Conclusion:
The market for Highwaymen paintings has clearly slowed during the last 3 months, as I have reported each month and also compared statistics to the first 3 months of the year. The difference is obvious. Many people expected that the market would be picking up in September, but clearly, the performance statistics of these two auctions would lead anyone to conclude otherwise.
At the same time, based upon discussions with many active Highwaymen dealers, most dealers are saying their business has been good to very good. Just using my own facebook sales as an example, in the last 2 weeks I have posted on facebook 3 moderately priced paintings for sale. These were an Isaac Knight, Robert Butler, and RL Lewis. They were each priced between $1,600 and $3,000, and all 3 paintings sold in less than 24 hours.
When paintings are priced to sell, and are of good quality, they sell quickly. At the same time, the rising estimates at auction houses, combined with weakening purchasing power of collectors due to the economy, is what has resulted in the growth of PASSED paintings, and the growth in the numbers of paintings where sales prices not reach the stated target prices.
The next two months will be critical in determining whether there is another strong winter season like last year, or if the auction malaise continues through the winter.
November is a significant kick-off month for the winter season. Everyone waits for the Rennick auction as Rennick has been collecting paintings to sell since their last auction in March. The auction is a bellwether for the winter season. The quality of paintings is high, the quantity is large as Rennick has been gathering paintings for 8 months, and the buyers fee at 10% is the lowest in the market. It’s a perfect storm of attributes all coming together in about 8 weeks.
In the meantime, in the interest of self-promotion, John Biederwolf and I will be holding 2 Highwaymen sales events at the West Palm Beach Café on September 20 and October 26 ! We hope to see some of you there, or at one of the several exhibitions that we have planned during the coming 6 months. See our event schedule on the next page.
Wishing everyone a
Happy Highwaymen Hunting month ahead !
Mark Lerner MJL@TheHighwaymenCollector.com 786-599-5816
www.TheHighwaymenCollector.com
Buying and selling Highwaymen art of exceptional quality, unusual scenes, and rare paintings by the Buckners. Always available: select paintings that have been published in books and catalogues.